Understanding the USD/TRY exchange rate is more than just numbers for businesses in Turkey; it’s a strategic necessity. With contracts, revenues, and expenses frequently crossing currency lines, the exchange rate can dramatically influence your bottom line. Navigating these currency waves requires skill, precision, and foresight to protect your financial interests. As we enter 2025, with global economic uncertainties and local monetary policies in flux, having a clear view of potential exchange rate movements becomes crucial for business planning and risk management.
In this analysis, we examine current market indicators, futures contracts, and key economic factors to project the USD/TRY exchange rate through 2025, providing you with actionable insights for your business decisions.
Current Status
As of February 7th, the USD/TRY exchange rate stands at 35.97—a result of the steady increase with minimal volatility that began in November 2024.
Below, you’ll find a list of futures contracts from the İstanbul Stock Exchange’s Futures and Options Market (ISE VIOP) for dates extending through the end of the year. These figures are noteworthy because they reflect real market trades, offering a tangible insight into expectations rather than mere speculation. We’ve included data points from both February 7th and February 28th (updated) to demonstrate how market expectations have evolved even over this short period. The futures prices indicate a clear upward trajectory, with each successive month showing higher expected rates.
| Month | 7th of Feb | 28th of Feb |
|---|---|---|
| Spot | 35.97 | 36.52 |
| February | 36.60 | 36.41 |
| March | 37.52 | 37.38 |
| April | 38.53 | 38.49 |
| May | 39.45 | 39.51 |
| June | 40.46 | 40.50 |
| July | 41.40 | 41.52 |
| August | 42.28 | 42.56 |
| September | 43.20 | 43.47 |
| October | 44.16 | 44.58 |
| November | 45.07 | 45.56 |
| December | 45.90 | 46.60 |
Turkey exchange rate prediction
Based on the current spot rate and December’s futures prices, the market appears to anticipate a 27-28% devaluation of the Turkish lira, aligning with the CBRT’s1 inflation expectation of 24%. However, an analysis of minimum wage trends reveals that while wages have hovered around the $600 mark for over 15 years, they have recently risen to approximately $850. This divergence suggests that the lira may be overvalued and could face a downward adjustment during the year. Consequently, we predict the USD/TRY rate will reach approximately 52-53, indicating a devaluation of around 47%.
Naturally, there are factors that challenge our forecast. The robust levels of CBRT reserves, along with the influence of existing KKM2 accounts, encourage the authorities to intervene in the USD/TRY rate. Moreover, such rate increases also impact inflation, indicating that the Turkish lira is unlikely to experience an unchecked free fall.
Please consider this information carefully as you formulate your business strategies. In an inflationary environment, even straightforward contracts can quickly escalate into serious challenges and hedging risks should be kept in mind. We are here to support you in navigating the Turkish market, so feel free to reach out with any questions or inquiries.
28th of February Update: This estimation has been made at 7th of February, and updated at 28th of February. Year end futures price of USDTRY parity has been increased 1.5% in 21 calendar days.
Disclaimer: This content is not intended as investment advice, and we assume no responsibility for any decisions made based on these projections.